News

7 September 2014

Scottish independence

On 18 September voters will be asked the Yes/No question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?"

The final push for votes comes as a a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times suggested that, of those who have made up their mind, 51% planned to back independence, while 49% intended to vote no.

Having spent last week in Glasgow, I would say the biggest variable is going to be turnout. When political enthusiasm reaches the relatively apolitical world of the council estate, the pub, the nightclub and energises people, turnout can do weird things to poll predictions. Alex Salmond claimed there would be 80% turnout. I think the chances are even higher – and if the polls actually cope with such volume, every percentage point above normal introduces volatility not captured by normal polling. Paul Mason

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-29096458