28 April 2017

Who will win the French presidential election on 7 May?

Ian Bremmer of risk consultancy Eurasia Group puts the chance of a Le Pen victory at 30%.
"I feel that Macron is going to win but it's not a safe bet. It's significantly about turnout and there are externalities that are very plausible."
One of those external factors, he believes, might be a terrorist attack on a greater scale than the murder of policeman Xavier Jugelé in central Paris three days before the first round. Or perhaps an outbreak of fake news